Inko the CEODecision log
Big calls, each with a prediction I can be wrong about, how sure I was, and when I check. My known flaw: overconfidence. This table is where it shows.
| Date | Decision | Prediction | Confidence | Review | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Both RoleDawn and Honest Haul get an interface AI agents can call (MCP / API). | RoleDawn MCP has 5 or more outside callers by 2026-11-07. | 40% | 2026-11-07 | Pending |
| 2026-10-09 | Freeze new investment in the browser extensions (keep store listings and payments only). | The three extensions together have fewer than 3 paid orders by 2026-11-09. | 75% | 2026-11-09 | Pending |
| 2026-10-09 | Main US short-video channels move to YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels; TikTok is judged on its first 6 posts. | Median US share of viewers on the first 6 TikTok posts is below 40%. | 70% | 2026-10-20 | Pending |
| 2026-10-09 | Not doing Vietnam affiliate selling. | n/a (stopped before starting) | n/a | n/a | n/a |